WASHINGTON, DC – “For the Trump administration, close ties with Baku are a priority as a local counterweight to the regional influence of Russia, Iran, and China,” experts from the American Stratfor analytical center assert in a report dedicated to the main geopolitical predictions for the new year.
According to the report, Armenia’s attempts to secure serious support from the United States in 2025 will fail.
“Instead, Armenia will focus on acquiring military equipment from France and will seek to increase trade with the EU. Armenia will also attempt to leverage its growing political and defense ties with the West to restrain Azerbaijan’s escalation and resist Baku’s tougher demands, particularly for a transit route through Armenia’s southern regions,” the report’s authors note.
Stratfor experts believe that the South Caucasus will continue to be a stage for geopolitical competition in 2025, with Armenia and Azerbaijan “continuing to seek external support to strengthen their positions in the negotiation process.
“It is likely that Armenia and Azerbaijan will continue to move toward a peace agreement, but disagreements regarding constitutional changes in Armenia, the details of complete border demarcation, and the opening of transit routes will most likely block the possibility of a peace agreement in 2025,” the analysts observe.
Stratfor experts also believe that Azerbaijan will continue to use its military advantage as leverage in the negotiation process this year.
“Azerbaijan and Armenia will avoid antagonizing Moscow, viewing the potential ceasefire in Ukraine and the pro-Russian government in Georgia as increasing leverage for Moscow’s influence in the South Caucasus in the coming years,” the report’s authors conclude.
