YEREVAN — A new nationwide voter survey by EVN Report’s Armenian Election Study (ArmES) shows Armenia’s ruling Civil Contract party strengthening its position ahead of the June 7 parliamentary elections, while the opposition remains fragmented and unable to consolidate support.
The second wave of polling, conducted between February 23 and March 31, 2026, surveyed 911 respondents nationwide and found that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s approval rating rose sharply to 47.2%, up from 36% in the first wave, moving his performance rating into positive territory. At the same time, the share of voters who believe Armenia is heading in the right direction increased to 41.2%, while those saying the country is on the wrong track dropped to 33.3%.
The findings suggest growing public confidence in the government’s management of security, the economy, and foreign policy developments, including positive reactions to the TRIPP initiative, the visit of U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance, and the government’s handling of the regional crisis involving Iran. These factors appear to be translating into a measurable electoral boost for the incumbent party.
Despite leading the field, Civil Contract still appears short of the threshold needed to form a single-party government, meaning coalition scenarios remain possible. The opposition field continues to be led by Strong Armenia, though its support has largely stagnated, while the Armenia Alliance remains below the parliamentary threshold. Pro-Western opposition parties also continue to trail far behind, with none currently positioned to enter parliament.
The survey also found improving public sentiment on the economy, with 39.5% saying the economy is better than a year ago and 40.4% expecting it to improve further over the next year. Meanwhile, a majority of respondents also said Armenia’s security environment has improved, even amid heightened regional tensions.
Overall, the second wave of EVN Report’s polling points to a clear momentum shift in favor of the ruling party, with undecided voters also showing a modest move toward Prime Minister Pashinyan and Civil Contract as the campaign enters a decisive phase.
