WASHINGTON, DC — The United States Intelligence Community is predicting a new armed conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

The 2023 Annual Threat Assessment of the U.S. Intelligence Community, published by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence, noted that “relations between Armenia and Azerbaijan are likely to remain tense and occasionally volatile in the absence of a peace treaty, given the proximity of military forces at the interstate border, the lack of a cease-fire enforcement mechanism, and Azerbaijan’s readiness to use calibrated military pressure to advance its goals in talks with Armenia.”

Furthermore, the report states that in September 2022 Azerbaijani forces launched a “coordinated attack” at multiple locations along the border, seizing some Armenian territory.

Such confrontations are likely to be limited in duration and intensity.  Since May 2021, military clashes have occurred regularly at the interstate border and around the Nagorno-Karabakh region. The most intense flare-up took place in September 2022, when Azerbaijani forces launched a coordinated attack at multiple locations along the border, seizing some Armenian territory and resulting in nearly 300 military deaths.  Peace talks have made some progress, but the most challenging issues—related to state borders and the future of Nagorno-Karabakh—are far from being resolved,” the report reads, in part.

Yesterday, the spokesperson of US State Department, Ned Price, called the situation “sensitive”.

‘It’s a situation that is far too prone to violence, as we’ve seen in recent days in the Nagorno-Karabakh region, and it is a longstanding conflict that the United States would like to do everything we can to support its resolution,’ Price said.

He added that the United States is going to continue to do that by working bilaterally with these countries, trilaterally with Armenia and Azerbaijan, supporting their own efforts at dialogue and diplomacy, but also through all appropriate mechanisms to help these countries themselves conduct the diplomacy and reach the agreements that we hope that they will be able to make.

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