AUSTIN, TX — Stratfor reports that Armenia and Azerbaijan are expected to take measured steps toward implementing the provisions of the 2025 framework peace agreement—a process that could lower the risk of a new conflict between the two countries.
According to the analytical center, the normalization of trade relations between the two sides is likely to proceed cautiously. Rather than pursuing comprehensive economic integration, the parties are expected to focus on building confidence through limited trade cooperation.
On the domestic front, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan is likely to face growing public discontent, largely driven by perceptions of concessions to Azerbaijan and strained relations with the Armenian Apostolic Church. Pashinyan is also expected to delay holding a referendum on constitutional amendments until after the June elections.
If Pashinyan fails to secure re-election, the future of the draft peace agreement would become uncertain. However, should he retain power following the vote, he is likely to prioritize the implementation of the TRIPP (“Trump Route”), which is a central component of the joint declaration signed with the United States and Azerbaijan.
Baku, for its part, is expected to complete construction of its segment of the Aras (Araxes) corridor through Iranian territory in parallel with TRIPP, while maintaining TRIPP as both leverage and an alternative route that could exclude Armenia from regional integration in the event of non-cooperation.
Russia is expected to attempt to obstruct the development of TRIPP; however, its weakened position in the region is likely to limit its ability to significantly impede the westward pivot of both Yerevan and Baku.
