IRI Poll: Nikol Pashinyan Remains Armenia’s Most Trusted Political Figure

YEREVAN — Thirty-two percent of respondents would vote for Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party in Armenia’s June 7 parliamentary elections, according to a poll published by the International Republican Institute. Among citizens who said they are certain they will vote, that figure rises to 38%.

The survey was conducted among 1,511 respondents.

Seven percent said they would vote for Samvel Karapetyan’s Strong Armenia alliance, while 4% would support Robert Kocharyan’s Armenia Alliance. Two percent said they would vote for the Armenian Meritocratic Party, led by Gurgen Simonyan, and another 2% expressed support for Gagik Tsarukyan’s Prosperous Armenia Party.

Arman Tatoyan’s Wings of Unity, Vardan Ghukasyan’s DOK party, and the I Am Against Everyone party each received 1%. Another 2% said they preferred another candidate.

At the same time, a significant share of respondents — 43% — either refused to disclose their preferred candidate or said they had not yet decided. Eighty-one percent said they were confident in their choice, while 8% said they were fairly confident but could still change their decision before election day.

Asked whether the elections would be free and fair, 34% said they definitely would be, while 37% said they probably would be.

In response to the question of which political figure they trust most, 29% named Nikol Pashinyan, 9% named Samvel Karapetyan, 5% named Ararat Mirzoyan, and 4% named Robert Kocharyan. Compared with IRI’s February survey, trust in Pashinyan has increased by 9 percentage points, while trust in Samvel Karapetyan and Robert Kocharyan has each decreased by 1 point.

According to the poll, Civil Contract has the lowest support among young voters, while its strongest support comes from respondents over the age of 56. A similar pattern appears in trust ratings: only 15% of younger respondents named Pashinyan as the politician they trust most, compared with 45% among those over 56.

Sixty-one percent of respondents said Armenia is moving in the right direction, while 28% said it is moving in the wrong direction. Compared with the February poll, the share of those who believe the country is moving in the right direction increased by 14 points, while the share saying it is moving in the wrong direction decreased by 13 points.

Seventeen percent identified security and border issues as Armenia’s biggest problem, down from 21% in February. The economy and unemployment ranked second at 15%, compared with 18% previously. Another 10% cited high prices as a serious concern.

On foreign policy, 39% named France as Armenia’s most important partner, up from 27% in February. Thirty-five percent named Russia, down from 43%. The United States was named by 27%, down from 42%, while 34% named the European Union. Respondents identified Azerbaijan as Armenia’s greatest threat, followed by Turkey and Russia.