LYON — “A new opinion poll conducted ahead of Armenia’s pivotal June 7 elections predicts that Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party could secure nearly 65 percent of the vote among decided voters, indicating that he may be on track for a landslide victory and a commanding majority in the next parliament.
The Breavis poll, conducted between May 5 and May 11 among 1,551 respondents, shows Civil Contract maintaining a comfortable lead over a fragmented opposition, several factions of which reportedly enjoy active support from Russia. No opposition party is projected to exceed 12 percent of the vote.
If next Sunday’s election confirms the poll’s findings, Armenians will have granted Pashinyan a decisive mandate to continue Armenia’s strategic realignment toward the West. Such a result would further deepen the country’s confrontation with the Kremlin while reinforcing the historic peace agreement with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh, promoting greater regional stability and cooperation.
The agreement, signed last year at the White House with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev, formally ended decades of conflict between the two countries.
The Breavis poll also highlights Yerevan’s evolving national strategy and its continued shift toward the West after decades within Russia’s post-Soviet sphere of influence.
In recent weeks, Moscow has steadily increased pressure on Yerevan, including through significant trade restrictions, warnings regarding Armenia’s membership in the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and comparisons drawn by Russian President Vladimir Putin between Armenia and Ukraine. These developments came just days after U.S. President Donald Trump expressed his ‘complete and unconditional support’ for Pashinyan’s reelection.
The publication of the poll also coincides with Russia’s decision to recall its ambassador to Armenia, Sergey Kopyrkin, to Moscow for consultations regarding Yerevan’s efforts to accelerate its path toward European Union membership.
‘Russian Ambassador to the Republic of Armenia Sergey Kopyrkin has been recalled to Moscow for consultations concerning steps taken by Armenia’s leadership toward closer integration with the European Union,’ the Russian Foreign Ministry announced on Saturday.
One day earlier, the Kremlin continued its economic pressure campaign, announcing ‘temporary restrictions’ on exports of certain Armenian fruits and vegetables. These measures followed earlier restrictions imposed on Armenian mineral water, wine, and brandy exports, after Moscow had already threatened to halt supplies of discounted gas and oil that are vital to the Armenian economy.
Armenia, with a population of nearly three million, imported more than 80 percent of its natural gas from Russia last year.
On Friday, EAEU leaders also issued a joint statement warning Armenia that its plans to join the European Union pose ‘serious risks’ to the economic security of all member states.
During a summit in Astana, the leaders of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan called on Yerevan to organize a nationwide referendum as soon as possible on whether Armenia should choose between the European Union and the Moscow-led economic bloc.
At the same summit, Putin repeated earlier comparisons between Ukraine and Armenia, telling reporters in Astana that ‘the Ukrainian crisis began when Ukraine attempted to join the European Union.’
Although the EAEU statement focused on Armenia’s pro-European course, it was released only one day after Trump publicly endorsed Pashinyan’s reelection, describing him as a ‘great friend and leader’ who is making Armenia ‘strong, prosperous, and very safe.’
Meanwhile, Moscow has reportedly launched a broad and intensive disinformation campaign in Armenia in support of pro-Russian opposition candidates, including covert efforts aimed at weakening Pashinyan’s political standing.
Citing Western intelligence officials, Reuters reported on Saturday that Moscow is planning to transport tens of thousands of Armenian voters from Russia to Armenia in an effort to influence the outcome of the elections.”
