Fitch: Peace Deal Could Boost Armenia’s Economic Outlook

YEREVAN — International credit rating agencies are assessing the potential economic impact of the peace framework signed in Washington between Armenia and Azerbaijan. In its latest report, Fitch Ratings noted that while challenges remain, the peace process could strengthen Armenia’s creditworthiness, stabilize its currency, and support economic growth in the medium term.

Fitch emphasized that the agreement is unlikely to affect sovereign ratings immediately, but could lead to positive trends through expanded trade and reduced geopolitical risk. Finance Minister Vahe Hovhannisyan welcomed the report, saying it aligns with government forecasts of stronger growth, reduced currency volatility, and lower fiscal risks. He added that improved stability could attract more international investment and boost Armenia’s credibility.

The agency highlighted that durable peace could be supported by lower defense spending, normalized relations with Turkey, and fully defined treaty provisions. It also noted Armenia’s trade routes currently rely heavily on Georgia, but access through Turkey could improve long-term prospects. Still, Fitch stopped short of including these factors in its baseline forecasts due to uncertainty and unresolved political issues.

Analysts remain cautious. Benjamin Poghosyan of the APRI Armenia think tank called the Fitch report realistic, noting that while the Washington developments are a key step, unresolved questions around constitutional changes, transit routes, and security guarantees leave significant risks. He warned that disagreements over sovereignty and border controls on proposed corridors, such as the U.S.-backed TRIPP route, could become points of contention between Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Overall, Fitch’s analysis underscores cautious optimism: peace could be a catalyst for Armenia’s growth, but only if political and security uncertainties are resolved.