Fitch Affirms Armenia’s ‘BB’ Credit Rating with Positive Outlook

YEREVAN — International credit-rating agency Fitch Ratings has affirmed Armenia’s sovereign credit rating at “BB,” maintaining the country’s positive outlook.

According to the agency, Armenia’s rating reflects its stable macroeconomic policy framework, strong economic growth and the continuing upward trend in per-capita income. Experts say Armenia compares favorably with its peers in economic growth, its debt-to-GDP ratio and several other indicators.

Armenia’s international credit rating is based on four main pillars: the structural characteristics of the economy, macroeconomic developments and prospects, external finances and public finances.

The overall rating combines indicators related to all these areas and includes several qualitative assessments, Arshaluis Harutyunyan, head of the Macroeconomic Policy Department at Armenia’s Ministry of Finance, told Public Radio’s “Radiolur” program.

“The rating primarily highlights the stable macroeconomic environment, strong growth and prudent management of public finances, particularly the sustainability of public debt and the trajectory of the budget deficit,” Harutyunyan said. “We expect the deficit to decline steadily over the coming years, which plays an important role in maintaining the rating.”

According to Harutyunyan, the overall rating outlook remains positive. The assessment includes a model-based evaluation using approximately 18 indicators covering both actual data and forecast periods.

“Based on these indicators, our model-generated rating was ‘BB+’ rather than ‘BB,’” he said. “Our rating increased by one notch because of our economic indicators. However, following certain qualitative adjustments, it was lowered by one notch, leaving our existing rating unchanged. Those adjustments reflected regional geopolitical risks and certain export restrictions.”

The rating primarily reflects Armenia’s economic development and sends a positive signal to both domestic and foreign investors by providing an assessment of the country’s prospects and risks. It also allows the private and public sectors to attract financing at lower interest rates.

Sos Khachikyan, head of the Interdisciplinary Research Center at the Armenian State University of Economics, said the Fitch rating reflects the stability and predictability of Armenia’s economy and demonstrates the existence of a favorable investment environment.

“It also means that Armenia’s position in international economic relations is gradually strengthening,” Khachikyan said. “Of course, amid regional and global uncertainty, that strengthening should be viewed in relative terms. Nevertheless, considering the realities of our region, the rating indicates that investors can have a certain level of long-term confidence in the Armenian economy.”

Fitch Ratings forecasts that Armenia’s real GDP will grow by 5.2 percent in 2026, significantly exceeding the average projected growth rate of 2.9 percent for countries in the “BB” rating category.

Khachikyan said that difficulties related to exports to Russia are unlikely to have a significant effect on the overall economy, although they could still have some negative consequences. In his view, export volumes are not large enough to create serious economic problems, particularly because Armenia’s GDP is supported by several other sectors.

“These include construction and services, particularly information technology and banking,” he said. “The mining industry also accounts for a considerably larger share of the economy than fruit and vegetable exports.”

Both local experts and international rating agencies emphasize the importance of maintaining a stable and predictable economic environment.