Military Escalation Nearly Unlikely, but Baku Has Intensified the “Return of Western Azerbaijanis” Narrative: Foreign Intelligence Service

YEREVAN — In its annual report, the Foreign Intelligence Service states that, as a result of the agreements reached in Washington on August 8, 2025, a military escalation between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2026 has become “nearly unlikely.”

At the same time, the agency—operating under the prime minister’s authority—notes that Azerbaijan’s promotion of the so-called “return of Western Azerbaijanis,” both in rhetoric and in practice, poses risks and negatively affects peace-building efforts.

According to the Service’s findings, following the Washington declaration, Azerbaijan has not only failed to scale back this narrative but has significantly intensified related propaganda. The report warns that this trend creates serious risks to long-term peace. As evidence, the Foreign Intelligence Service cites Azerbaijani media coverage on the theme of so-called “Western Azerbaijan,” which increased by 36 percent between August and December of last year compared with the beginning of the previous year.

In light of these developments, the Foreign Intelligence Service states that one of its priority tasks will be to continuously assess the true objectives behind Azerbaijan’s state policy of promoting the “return of Western Azerbaijanis.”

“Of particular concern is whether Azerbaijan, by elevating these themes into a new national ideology, intends to transfer the conflict to Armenian territory in a new format, or whether this so-called ‘return of Western Azerbaijanis’ narrative is part of Azerbaijan’s foreign policy bargaining toolkit—specifically as a means to counter the issue of the return of Armenians to Karabakh,” the report concludes.