Moscow Lost Armenia but Did Not Gain Azerbaijan

By KRIKOR KHODANIAN

In recent days, we have witnessed a steady escalation in Russian-Azerbaijani relations. The killing of two Azerbaijani brothers during a law enforcement operation carried out by Russian authorities became the spark that gave Baku an excuse to take new steps against Moscow.

Azeri police raided the Russian “Sputnik” news agency office in Baku, arresting a group of journalists and other Russian citizens in a demonstrative and humiliating manner, accusing them of fraud and drug trafficking. Baku canceled a number of cultural events, withdrew from bilateral negotiations, and recalled its diplomats. These developments mark the second act in a saga that began in December of last year, following an incident involving an Azerbaijani aircraft and the subsequent closure of the “Russian House” in Baku. It is beyond doubt that President Aliyev uses such incidents as pretexts to distance himself from Russia and draw closer to the West. Some political circles in Moscow are already suggesting that Baku has taken all it needed from Russia and no longer requires its support.

Aliyev behaves boldly because he now enjoys the backing of a stronger ally — Turkey — whose long-term goal has always been to push Russia out of the South Caucasus. That objective is now closer than ever to becoming reality. Moscow finds itself in this situation due to its own short-sighted policies. It armed Azerbaijan unconditionally, fully aware that those weapons would be used against Armenia — its supposed ally. The Kremlin had the means to prevent the 44-day war of 2020 but chose not to act. It could have halted the full ethnic cleansing of Artsakh, but not only did it fail to stop it — it actively enabled it. Likewise, it ignored Azerbaijan’s attacks and occupation of sovereign Armenian territory.

In light of these latest developments, will the Russian leadership reconsider the foreign policy it has pursued in the Caucasus in recent years? Even if Moscow does attempt a reset, it will already be too late. Armenia is not ready to return to the old days when it was entirely dependent on one country for both military supplies and foreign policy. Today, Yerevan pursues a multi-vector foreign policy and is rebuilding its army through friendships and cooperation with a variety of countries.

It is beyond doubt that Russian-Azerbaijani relations cannot return to their former state. The same can be said for Armenia — though Armenia is still willing to maintain ties with Russia based on mutual respect and the defense of its national interests.

What is clear is that Russia has lost its true ally — the Armenian state and its people — without gaining Azerbaijan, a country that is doing everything it can to destroy its relationship with Moscow while cozying up to Turkey, Israel, and the West.

These days, when Russian spokespeople still utter the words “brotherly Armenia,” those words sound hollow and meaningless. No country would treat an ally the way Russia has treated Armenia — abandoning it to defeat on the battlefield. Fortunately, the Armenian people found the strength to forge their own path and become an important player on the international stage.
“MASSIS”

Note: Translated with the assistance of chatGBT