EAEU Report Warns Armenia Could Face Severe Economic Consequences if Membership Is Suspended

MOSCOW — A report prepared by representatives of Russia, Belarus, Kazakhstan, and Kyrgyzstan within the Eurasian Intergovernmental Council warns that Armenia could face significant economic consequences if the application of the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU) Treaty to the country were temporarily suspended.

According to the report, such a decision could lead to a 15.6 percent decline in Armenia’s gross domestic product (GDP), a 14.9-percentage-point increase in inflation, and a 14.6 percent reduction in consumption.

The report also projects a substantial increase in natural gas prices, from the current $177.50 to $300 per 1,000 cubic meters, representing an increase of approximately 69 percent.

It notes that this estimate is preliminary and that actual prices could rise further depending on market conditions.

In addition to these economic effects, the report warns that suspending Armenia’s EAEU membership could result in stricter labor migration requirements for Armenian citizens seeking employment in other member states.

The suspension could also lead to the reinstatement of customs inspections, import duties, comprehensive sanitary controls, and taxation on goods moving between Armenia and other EAEU countries.

According to the report, if a decision were made to suspend Armenia’s membership, the legal provisions established under the Treaty on the Eurasian Economic Union, signed on May 29, 2014, would cease to apply to Armenia, its businesses, and its citizens.

The report projects that Armenia’s total imports could decline by 48.8 percent, while overall trade turnover between Armenia and EAEU member states could fall by 55.6 percent.

It further estimates that exports of Armenian-produced goods could decrease by 30 to 50 percent, while re-exports could fall by more than 90 percent.

The report presents these figures as potential consequences of suspending Armenia’s participation in the EAEU framework, highlighting the country’s economic dependence on existing trade arrangements with member states.

The findings underscore the significant economic challenges Armenia could face if its current relationship with the Eurasian Economic Union were disrupted.