Armenia–Russia Relations: Toward Confrontation or Dialogue?

By KRIKOR KHODANIAN

Relations between the Republic of Armenia and the Russian Federation have entered a difficult and tense period. The two countries, once allies, are now deeply divided over how to reassess the past and shape their future relationship.

The 44-day war and the events that followed—particularly Russia’s indifference when Azerbaijani forces invaded Armenia’s sovereign territory in 2022, followed by its abandonment of the Armenians of Artsakh, whom it had been entrusted to protect—have left Armenians deeply disillusioned. This disappointment will be difficult to overcome in the foreseeable future.

Yerevan is seeking to redefine its future relations with Moscow on a new basis, with Armenia’s national and state interests serving as the guiding principles. Moscow, however, maintains that the former ties should be restored and that the two countries should remain loyal allies and partners in all fields, including the economy, politics, defense, and other areas.

Senior Russian officials continue to oppose Armenia’s foreign policy of closer ties with European countries, issuing warnings at times and threats at others. Among the latest was a statement by Dmitry Medvedev, Russia’s former president and current deputy chairman of its Security Council, who warned that Armenia could become “the new Ukraine.”

“Armenia’s current leadership has decided to change the direction of its development. I am confident that this will lead to nothing good. The worst thing that could happen to Armenia is its transformation into a new Ukraine,” he said.

Since the war in Ukraine began, Medvedev has effectively been tasked with delivering some of the most extreme statements directed against the West. He has repeatedly threatened the use of nuclear weapons as a means of bringing the war to an end. His latest remarks directed at Armenia should therefore be viewed in this broader context.

Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan described Medvedev’s comments as incomprehensible, adding:

“Armenia has already faced such a danger and found itself in a similar situation when the CSTO failed to fulfill its obligations toward Armenia. Why is Mr. Medvedev making such a statement? One could just as easily make a statement warning that Armenia might suddenly turn into a new Russia, given that explosions are occurring in various parts of Russia. This is not a good genre.”

Despite the accusations coming from the Kremlin, Yerevan is trying to avoid a complete rupture in relations with Moscow, seeking to resolve existing disagreements on the basis of mutual respect.

Thanks to these efforts, contacts between the leaders of the two countries, which had been interrupted for a period following Armenia’s parliamentary elections, have resumed. Prime Minister Pashinyan and President Vladimir Putin have held several bilateral meetings and telephone conversations on the sidelines of international summits, seeking common ground on outstanding issues.

Until recently, Pashinyan had stated that Armenia needed small modular nuclear power plants that could be built by American companies. He has since changed his position, arguing that the construction of a large nuclear power plant would be more appropriate, while leaving open the possibility of entrusting the project to Russian companies. In this way, Yerevan appears to be signaling that it is not constrained by its differences with Moscow and remains willing to continue cooperating with Russia.

Several outstanding issues remain to be resolved, the most important of which concerns the management of Armenia’s railway network. Yerevan believes that control of the network should be transferred from the Russian company currently operating it to a company from another country, allowing Armenia’s railways to connect with regional transportation networks. Otherwise, Armenia risks being excluded from new projects because of the sanctions imposed on Russian companies.

Moscow firmly rejects this proposal. Is Yerevan raising the possibility of entrusting the construction of a nuclear power plant to Russian companies in an attempt to soften Moscow’s position on railway management? The answer may become clear in the coming months.

Negotiations on gas supplies are also expected in December. During these talks, Russia may demand a price increase, arguing that Armenia currently benefits from discounted gas prices as a member of the Eurasian Economic Union. However, if Armenia has chosen the path toward European Union membership, Russia may argue that it should pay international market prices, which are several times higher.

Russia has recently unveiled a new initiative dubbed the “Putin Route.” The project aims to connect Russia, Georgia, and Armenia through the construction of roads and railways running through Abkhazia. The initiative is viewed as a geopolitical response to the “Trump Route,” which passes through Armenia and has already begun moving toward implementation.

Armenia–Russia relations thus face new tests and challenges that must be addressed with composure and pragmatism. At every turn, Armenia has demonstrated its willingness to engage in sincere and constructive dialogue. The remaining question is whether the Russian side will demonstrate the same willingness.

“MASSIS”