Armenia–Russia Relations After the Pashinyan–Putin Meeting

By  KRIKOR KHODANIAN

The repercussions of the Pashinyan–Putin meeting held last week in Bishkek continue to be widely discussed among Armenia’s public and political circles.

The meeting consisted of two parts. During the first part, in the presence of journalists, the two leaders presented their respective views on Armenia–Russia relations. President Putin focused on Armenia’s aspirations to join the European Union, once again insisting that EU membership is incompatible with membership in the Eurasian Economic Union. In response, Pashinyan reaffirmed that Armenia is interested in further developing and deepening its relations with Russia. At the same time, he emphasized that the regional situation surrounding Armenia has changed in recent years and that Armenian–Russian relations need to be viewed with a “fresh perspective.”

The second part of the meeting was held behind closed doors, and little was disclosed about the issues discussed. However, the two sides agreed to thoroughly discuss their existing problems in the future, during Pashinyan’s visit to Moscow. Among these issues, the most urgent for Armenia concerns the management of the Armenian railway system. Currently, its management is entrusted to a Russian company, and according to the Armenian side, this could hinder the implementation of the “Trump Route” project, given that Western sanctions against Russia restrict international companies from doing business with Russian entities. Yerevan has proposed transferring the management rights to another country that would be acceptable to Russia.

Kazakhstan has been mentioned as a possible third country. It has good relations with Russia and is a member of the Moscow-led Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) military alliance, the Eurasian Economic Union (EAEU), and the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS), which brings together a number of former Soviet republics. Russia strongly opposes this proposal, believing that it is part of an effort to remove Russia from the Caucasus region and is being pursued through Western pressure on Armenia.

At the conclusion of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization meeting held in Bishkek, President Putin, responding to a journalist’s question, unexpectedly declared that if Armenia considers the Russian military base in Gyumri unnecessary, “we will leave, even tomorrow.” This was the first time such a statement had been made throughout the period of increasingly deteriorating relations between the two countries. Putin’s proposal was also unexpected because the Armenian side had never raised the issue and has consistently emphasized that removing the Russian military base is not on its agenda.

According to political circles, President Putin is thereby raising the pressure on Yerevan to a higher level, believing that by introducing such an issue into the public debate, he can influence Armenian public opinion. Opposition circles have already begun emphasizing that, following the withdrawal of the Russian military presence, Azerbaijan and Turkey would attack and eliminate the Republic of Armenia. The opposing view argues that no such danger exists and, on the contrary, that it was in the presence of Russian forces that the Azerbaijani army advanced as far as the vicinity of Jermuk.

New negotiations over the Russian gas supplied to Armenia are expected next December, and there is a strong possibility that an increase in the price of gas will be placed on the agenda, further tightening economic pressure on Armenia.

The Kremlin continues to believe that, by spreading disinformation, imposing economic pressure, and now threatening to close the military base, it can force Yerevan to demonstrate the same loyalty toward Russia that existed before the 44-day war of 2020. However, Armenian–Russian relations have reached a point from which there can be no return to the past. The only way forward is for the two sides to find areas of agreement and continue cooperating wherever possible.

Moscow must begin learning lessons from the recent past. Just as it failed to subjugate Ukraine through war, it will not be able to force the Armenian people, through economic or other forms of pressure, to abandon the new path they have chosen.

“MASSIS”