Elections Between Peace and War

By KRIKOR KHODANIAN

On the eve of Armenia’s upcoming parliamentary elections, political forces have almost fully launched their campaigns, marked by mutual accusations and promises made to voters. The latter is being particularly emphasized by opposition parties—especially “Strong Armenia,” led by Samvel Karapetyan, who is currently under house arrest—offering quite ambitious and unrealistic agendas. As for the authorities, they are focusing on the work they have carried out over the past five years and the achievements they have attained.

In recent days, the most widely discussed question has been what might happen to the fate of the peace agreement reached with Azerbaijan if the opposition wins the upcoming elections and comes to power. According to Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, the forces led by Robert Kocharyan, Samvel Karapetyan, and Gagik Tsarukyan have adopted a policy of revising the agreements reached to establish peace between Armenia and Azerbaijan. “These days, those forces are talking about renegotiating the peace established between Armenia and Azerbaijan, about renegotiating and imposing peace, including by force. This clearly and unequivocally means not only opening the door to war, but making it inevitable,” Pashinyan stated.

Naturally, opposition forces reject this accusation and accuse the Prime Minister of attempting to intimidate and blackmail the public. However, based on the opposition’s public statements in recent years, they consider the current peace to be deceptive, argue that the authorities are conceding to Azerbaijan’s demands, and claim they could negotiate from a stronger position with Aliyev to secure more favorable terms—even ensuring the return of the Armenians of Artsakh to their homes.

If they come to power, the current opposition will face two options: either abandon their current rhetoric and comfortably enjoy the benefits of power, or follow through on their promises and return to a previous state of conflict. The Russian factor is also significant here. The main opposition forces are not only ideologically pro-Russian but are also connected in various ways and operate under Moscow’s influence. For the Kremlin, the peace agreement initialed between Armenia and Azerbaijan has never been politically favorable—especially since it materialized under the sponsorship of the United States. At present, Russia has completely lost its leverage over Azerbaijan and will do everything possible to bring Baku, at least partially, back under its influence. This could only happen if Armenia and Azerbaijan remain in a state of continuous conflict.

There is also the so-called “Trump route” plan, which is also not aligned with Russia’s interests. Moscow would prefer a return to the ninth point of the trilateral agreement signed at the end of the 44-day war, which envisaged securing a transport route connecting Azerbaijan to Nakhichevan through Armenian territory under Russian military control. The opposition agrees with the Russian side on returning to the implementation of this ninth point.

Taking all this into account, Pashinyan’s warnings are by no means exaggerated. A return to a wartime situation should not be ignored or considered unlikely. Countries have their own interests and will try to pursue them at any cost. Russia will attempt to advance its national interests and, in doing so, can rely only on the Kocharyan–Karapetyan–Tsarukyan trio. The people of Armenia now stand at a crossroads: either continue supporting the current government’s path toward peace, or risk everything by following the opposition’s promises—thereby endangering both their own future and that of the country. We are confident that the people of Armenia will once again make the right decision.

“MASSIS”