Armenia Hopes to Emerge from the War Against Iran with Minimal Damage

By  KRIKOR KHODANIAN

The war launched against Iran by the United States and Israel has entered its third week. The entire Persian Gulf region has become a theater of military operations. President Donald Trump has been sending contradictory messages—at times speaking about victory and the imminent end of the war, and at other times about continuing military operations and achieving regime change in Iran.

While Azerbaijan and Turkey—both bordering Iran—have not remained untouched by the bombardments, Armenia has so far been spared, and life continues in a relatively normal manner. However, the prolongation of military operations could place the country before new challenges—economic, humanitarian, and political.

The most significant concern is the disruption of trade routes, since a considerable portion of Armenia’s foreign trade passes through Iranian territory. Any interruption in trade would undoubtedly affect Armenia’s economy through inflation and other consequences. The entry and exit of Iranian cargo trucks into Armenia could also slow down. In addition, the existing gas-for-electricity agreement with Iran could be put at risk.

If the United States and Israel succeed in overthrowing the theocratic regime in Tehran—an outcome many consider unlikely—Iran could descend into civil war. The repercussions of such instability could reach Armenia, creating humanitarian and security crises. With the arrival of large numbers of refugees, the government would face a new challenge, while the social and housing problems of the 120,000 refugees who arrived from Artsakh remain unresolved.

On the political front, Armenia is attempting to pursue balanced diplomatic relations. Iran is a friendly country for Armenia, and ties with it are of vital importance. On the other hand, the preliminary signing of a peace agreement with Azerbaijan on August 8 of last year under the auspices of the President of the United States, along with the development of the “Trump Route” project and the expected expansion of the investment environment, has elevated Armenia–U.S. relations to a new level. In light of these realities, Yerevan is attempting to pursue a delicate policy. Many observers noted that after the death of Iran’s Supreme Leader, Ali Khamenei—killed in strikes by the United States and Israel—Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan sent his condolences two days late. However, congratulations to the newly selected leader, Mojtaba Khamenei, were conveyed immediately.

Iran, which already had suspicions regarding the growing U.S. involvement in Armenia, will likely express even greater reservations following these developments. On this issue, official Yerevan is trying to reassure Tehran that the “Trump Route” is purely an economic project and has no military dimension.

The majority of the American public opposes this war, the purpose of which remains unclear to many. The swift end of military operations is critically important for Armenia so that trade and other ties with Iran can continue uninterrupted, making it possible for the country to emerge from this crisis with minimal damage.

“MASSIS”