From Order to Disorder?

HARUT DER-TAVITIAN

Awakened by the horrors of the Second World War, the world was thirsting for the establishment of the foundations of peaceful coexistence. It was in this atmosphere that the United Nations was born, along with the economic, financial, cultural, legal, and other international institutions that emerged from it, such as the World Bank, the International Monetary Fund, UNESCO, the World Health Organization, the International Court of Justice, and others. A system was created that, until now, has managed to prevent global conflagrations. But in recent years, we have witnessed that this system is in a state of disintegration, or if you will, transformation or transition, and woe to the day when the “order” is lost and turns into disorder.

At the forefront of this process of disintegration stands U.S. President Donald Trump, with his unpredictable actions that at times contradict one another. The tariffs he has imposed on many countries, only to soon revise them, create distrust toward his decisions. Even his allies in the Western world, such as England, France, and Germany, are alarmed by his actions and have begun reassessing their relations with the United States. Trump may speak admiringly of a leader and shortly thereafter condemn the same person. This shows that his approach to solving problems is more short-term, transactional deal-making than long-term strategic thinking, and more tied to his personal interests than to those of the country. It is clear that he is not a man of principles, but of expedient actions. Consequently, he exploits his position to the fullest to subordinate not only his immediate circle, but also opponents and even foreign heads of state. One can imagine that he does not hesitate to accuse the European Union, whose creation he considers a blow to the United States. Through his actions, he attempts to imitate the methods of Xi Jinping or Putin, which run counter to democratic ideology.

Being dependent on the whims of a strongman means returning to the law of the jungle, where force reigns supreme and rights are the monopoly of the strong. Unfortunately, this is the reality we have been witnessing in recent years, which deeply concerns us. If in the past this was veiled, today it is openly put into practice. Let us note a few major examples: the Russo-Ukrainian war, the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, the civil wars in Sudan, Myanmar, Syria, and Yemen, and the list can be extended further with examples from Haiti, Congo, Somalia, Mali, and others. In light of all this, why should we be surprised or ask where the civilized world was during the Armenian Genocide?

Why a New Order?

Why is the global system currently going through a process of disintegration, or in other words, transformation? Quite simply, because the constituent elements have changed. The U.S.–Soviet confrontation has given way to U.S.–China competition, pushing Russia and even the European Union into secondary roles. In view of China’s unprecedented advance economically, technologically, and militarily, the United States fears that in the near future it may lose its status as the world’s most powerful country and, consequently, its monopoly on imposing its will. So how should this concern be addressed?

Half a century ago, by establishing relations with China, the United States split the communist world, which led to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Is it now trying to court Russia to create a barrier against China? It appears that this is what Trump is attempting, by seeking to end the Russo-Ukrainian war on terms favorable to Russia. However, the European Union opposes such a solution, which would violate the principle of the inviolability of state borders and open the door to new conflicts. This is why Trump accuses the European Union, which supports, at all costs, the defense of Ukraine’s territorial integrity.

In our humble opinion, for now these developments are unfolding in China’s favor. China is observing the weakening of Russia and the European Union and is waiting for the United States to become more deeply entangled in the Russo-Ukrainian war, creating a favorable opportunity for China to seize Taiwan.

It is worth making a special mention here of the role of artificial intelligence (AI) in the creation of this new global system. This is the technological revolution of our time comparable to the Industrial Revolution that transformed the world beginning in the second half of the 18th century. It is clear that the countries that master it will be able to achieve greater success. However, there is a very sensitive point here concerning the companies that develop AI. In China’s case, these companies cannot operate outside the “word” of the state. In the United States, however, they are independent and must also take into account the interests of their owners and shareholders. Here, a conflict may arise between the objectives pursued by the state and those pursued by companies. For example, Trump banned NVIDIA from selling high-end chips to China, but after meeting with the company’s top executive, he revised his decision, on the condition that the United States receive a share of the profits from that operation. Another example is Trump’s decision for the United States to acquire a stake in Intel.

The New Order and Armenia

In light of all this, let us ask what impact this process may have on Armenia and the Armenian people. Armenia, too, is in search of how to move forward without once again getting trampled. It is clear that the South Caucasus is under the close scrutiny of major and middle powers, which are trying to create favorable conditions for themselves there. The Syunik region in particular is crucial, as it connects Central Asia with Europe and could serve as a route for communication lines, railways, oil and gas pipelines, and more. Let us not forget that it was the Karabakh war that diverted the Baku–Ceyhan pipeline to pass through Georgia’s longer and more costly route instead of through Syunik. Let us cite a few examples of the developments the region has undergone over the past five years.

Russia, which had brought Armenia completely under its control, did not look favorably upon Armenia’s efforts to pivot toward Europe, even during Serzh Sargsyan’s rule. Recall his summons to Moscow in 2013 and, overnight, the rejection of the Association Agreement with the European Union, followed by accession to the Eurasian Economic Union under Russia’s patronage. Sargsyan’s August 5, 2016 letter to Putin, warning that the balance of armaments with Azerbaijan had been disrupted and that the likelihood of renewed war was high, was ignored. Public momentum toward the West continued to grow and culminated in the 2018 revolution. Calls to “send Pashinyan home within six months” created concern among us that Armenia might face developments leading to the return of the former regime. Armenia’s shift toward sovereignty and democratic governance naturally did not suit Russia, as it would push Russia out of the South Caucasus. Thus, in September 2020, Russia gave Azerbaijan the green light to retake the seven territories surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh and advance as far as Shushi, but not Stepanakert. By deploying its “peacekeeping” forces there, Russia also regained a foothold in Azerbaijan, from which it had been excluded. Moreover, it began stationing troops in Syunik to control routes leading to Turkey and Iran, through which it could evade international sanctions imposed on it.

In February 2022, Russia invaded Ukraine, hoping to reach Kyiv within weeks and strengthen its position, but instead became bogged down in war. Taking advantage of Russia’s difficult situation, Azerbaijan completed the campaign it had launched in 2020 and, in September 2023, cleansed Artsakh of its indigenous population before the eyes of Russian “peacekeeping” forces, which, having no further role there, were forced to withdraw.

Russia, having once again brought Georgia under its control through billionaire Ivanishvili, is trying to achieve the same in Armenia through billionaire Samvel Karapetyan, aiming for a change of power. So far it has not succeeded, but it is making every effort to do so. Former authorities and their loyalists support this effort, including the ARF (Dashnaktsutyun) and, unfortunately, the Armenian Apostolic Church, led by Catholicos Garegin II. The latter, following Kocharyan’s “only strongman” model, gathered a circle of loyalists around himself with autocratic authority, whose conduct, unbecoming of clergy, damaged the Church’s reputation. At a time when, as a nation, we were going through critical years and needed a highly respected spiritual leader to strengthen faith and spiritual values among the people, Garegin II did not become that leader. Instead of assembling worthy individuals around himself and earning public trust and support, his capricious behavior drove them away from the Church. Rather than playing a conciliatory role, he became a divisive figure. By placing his personal interests above the office he was called to serve, he discredited himself and greatly harmed the standing of the Church. Instead of acting to strengthen our statehood and sovereignty, he has become an instrument in Russia’s hands, which seeks to make us entirely subordinate in order to exploit us freely for its own interests, as it did in the case of Artsakh.

To counter the spread of Russian influence, Armenia’s authorities are tilting to the West. They seek to oppose Russian control of the Syunik corridor with TRIPP (Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity), which China, India, and Central Asian countries could use to connect with Europe. Instead of relying on third forces or mediators, they are trying to establish bilateral relations with neighboring states, whether hostile Turkey or Azerbaijan. Keeping pace with global developments such as artificial intelligence, they are creating opportunities, through cooperation between NVIDIA and Firebird for the establishment of a $500 million AI supercomputer data center in the country, which would contribute to the growth of various sectors of the economy. Rather than depending on a single country, they are securing high-quality weaponry from India, France, and other countries to strengthen national defense.

When we look at Armenia’s economic development since 2018, we see that GDP per capita has risen from $4,196 to $8,330. Compare these figures with Azerbaijan’s, from $4,739 to $7,259 and you will be convinced that we are on a positive trajectory. When Russia is bogged down in a war with an uncertain outcome; when its influence in the Caucasus is diminishing; when Azeri-Turkish interests take precedence over Armenia’s interests for Russia; when Russia lags behind in artificial intelligence developments, then why should Armenia submit to the whims of a declining country’s strongman, instead of establishing mutually beneficial relations with developing countries?

The coming months, leading up to the parliamentary elections in June, will be fateful for Armenia. Will we return to the days of the “only strongman” rule, when the country was sold off and a few families enriched themselves at the expense of the people’s misery, or will we continue in the path of developing democracy and the country’s prosperity?