A Brief Note on the International Republican Institute’s Poll Results

By KRIKOR KHODANIAN

The International Republican Institute (IRI) has published its latest survey on Armenia. Within political circles, polls conducted by this institute are generally viewed as more credible and trustworthy compared to those carried out by local organizations, which are often seen as serving the interests of specific political factions rather than presenting the public’s genuine and impartial opinion.

The results of this latest poll reveal that a large majority of the Armenian population is indifferent toward the current political events in the country and has lost trust in all political figures and parties. This conclusion is supported by the data showing that 61% of the population does not trust any political leader, and 50% say they either will not participate in the next elections or are unwilling to vote for any political party.

Among those who do intend to vote, only 17% say they would support the ruling Civil Contract party led by Nikol Pashinyan, while Pashinyan’s personal approval rating is even lower—just 13%. These figures should be alarming for the current ruling party, especially with less than a year remaining until the next parliamentary elections.

However, these numbers do not necessarily mean that Pashinyan is on the verge of losing the next election. His main rival, the Armenia Alliance led by Robert Kocharyan, polls even lower—hovering around 4%. In this context, everything depends on which political camp is able to mobilize more voters to participate in the elections.

One major factor not reflected in this poll is the potential impact of Samvel Karapetyan, the Russian-based billionaire businessman who is currently under arrest. Since the survey was conducted before Karapetyan publicly entered the political arena, it does not measure how much he might influence Armenia’s political landscape. If Karapetyan manages to attract even a portion of the currently apathetic voters, he could become a serious competitor to Pashinyan. However, if his support base only comes at the expense of other opposition parties, then the current balance of power will remain largely in favor of the ruling party.

In almost all democratic countries—even among societies that enjoy economic stability and development—there are always grievances directed toward the ruling government, and elections every four or five years offer a peaceful means to change leadership, even if the core conditions of life remain the same. Unfortunately, that kind of democratic culture has not yet fully developed in Armenia. And since no credible alternative force has yet emerged that offers clear internal and external programs, a change in government would likely mean a return to the corrupt practices of the past and a loss of the achievements gained through the Velvet Revolution.

In the coming months, both internal and external dynamics may influence the public’s direction. A well-organized election campaign and honest dialogue with the people are the only real guarantees for Nikol Pashinyan’s re-election.
“MASSIS”

Note: Translated with the assistance of chatGBT