World Bank Forecasts 5.1 Percent Growth for Armenia in 2020

YEREVAN (ARKA) — Armenia’s GDP in 2020 is expected to edge up to 5.1%, according to the World Bank’s January 2020 Global Economic Prospects.

The gross domestic products of Armenia’s neighbors Azerbaijan and Georgia are forecast to up by 2.3% and 4.3% respectively. The GDP of another neighbor-Turkey is expected to grow by 3%, while Iran’s economy will show zero growth.

According to World Bank, Russia’s GDP will grow by 1.6% in 2020, that of Belarus  by 0.9%, Kazakhstan’s GDP will edge up by 3.7%, that of Kyrgyzstan by 4%, Moldova’s GDP will up by  3.6% , Tajikistan’s by 5.5%, Turkmenistan’s by 5.2%, Ukraine’s  by 3.7% and Uzbekistan’s by 5.7%.

The World Bank recalls that  in 2017 Armenia’s GDP growth amounted to 7.5%, in 2018 it  dropped to  5.2% and upped to 6.9%  in 2019. The forecast for 2021 and 2022 is 5.2%.

The World Bank says growth among advanced economies as a group is anticipated to slip to 1.4% in 2020 in part due to continued softness in manufacturing. Growth in emerging market and developing economies is expected to accelerate this year to 4.1%. This rebound is not broad-based; instead, it assumes improved performance of a small group of large economies, some of which are emerging from a period of substantial weakness. About a third of emerging market and developing economies are projected to decelerate this year due to weaker-than-expected exports and investment.

Regarding Europe and Central Asia, World Bank says the regional growth is expected to firm to 2.6% in 2020, assuming stabilization of key commodity prices and Euro Area growth and recovery in Turkey (to 3%) and Russia (to 1.6%).

Economies in Central Europe are anticipated to slow to 3.4% as fiscal support wanes and as demographic pressures persist, while countries in Central Asia are projected to grow at a robust pace on the back of structural reform progress. Growth is projected to firm in the Western Balkans to 3.6% — although the aftermath of devastating earthquakes could weigh on the outlook and decelerate in the South Caucasus to 3.1%.

The Armenian government’s GDP projection for 2020 is 4.9%. The projected inflation is 4% (±1.5%).